Most people know the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. But those who live along the Gulf and Atlantic coast states and most insurance claims adjusters will tell you that there is a “season within the season” when it comes to hurricanes. And that’s where things can really change quickly.
The first two months of the season are usually pretty calm. June averages only one named storm every other year, and July has averaged one named storm per year since 1950. We have seen a few early bird tropical storms pop up in May over the past few years, but these are rarely threats to life and land.
The real action, or the season within the season, happens from August to mid-October, with September 10th being the true peak of the season. This time frame is when the most powerful and destructive hurricanes occur. The African dust settles a bit while the waves increase, the currents and winds become more favorable, and the ocean temps are at their warmest during these months – all of which provide a much friendlier breeding ground for catastrophic storms.
Over the past six years, these destructive hurricanes all struck the U.S. during the peak of the season:
- 2022: Fiona (Puerto Rico, then Atlantic Canada); Ian (Florida)
- 2021: Ida (Louisiana); Nicholas (Texas)
- 2020: Isaias (North Carolina); Laura (Louisiana); Sally (Florida/Alabama border); Delta (Louisiana)
- 2019: Dorian (North Carolina)
- 2018: Florence (North Carolina); Michael (Florida)
- 2017: Harvey (Texas); Irma (Florida); Maria (Puerto Rico); Nate (Louisiana, Mississippi)
There are never any guarantees when it comes to predicting hurricanes, but all signs point to this year being a big one.
Top forecasters from Colorado State University issued the most active and aggressive forecast in their history for 2024. La Niña, combined with near-record sea surface temperatures, will provide a much more conducive environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We’ve already seen Beryl set records in 2024, and scientists firmly believe there is much more to come. Hurricanes that form later this season will have an almost unlimited supply of energy to develop and then rapidly intensify.
Perhaps the most important part of their forecast is this: “This forecast is of above-normal confidence.” Weather experts do not use the term “above-normal confidence” lightly or very often. After all, forecasting and weather predictions depend on hundreds (if not thousands) of factors, all of which are constantly changing or can change at any time.
Insurance claims adjusters know to stay ready for the hurricane season within the season. Though July, things have been relatively quiet, but when experts say confidently that it will change, we need to listen. If you’re interested in being a claims adjuster and working catastrophe deployments, it’s not too late. Check out your state licensing courses or give us a call. We’re here to help, every step of the way.
